Die Big-Data Kristallkugel

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Angenommen, es findet ein Quidditchspiel statt, Gryffindor gegen Slytherin.

Schreibe 200’000 Leute an; die eine Hälfte mit „Gryffindor wird gewinnen“, die andere Hälfte mit „Slytherin wird gewinnen“.

Gryffindor gewinnt.

Ignoriere die Slytherin-Leute und schreibe den anderen 100’000: „Seht ihr, wir hatten recht! Gryffindor hat gewonnen, wie vorhergesagt.“

Unterteile diese Gruppe wieder in zwei Teile.

Gryffindor gegen Ravenclaw.

„Ravenclaw wird gewinnen“ für die einen 50’000, „Gryffindor wird gewinnen“ für die anderen.

Ravenclaw gewinnt.

Schreibe an die 50’000 Ravenclaw-„Gewinner“: „Seht ihr, wir hatten schon wieder recht! Wollt ihr wissen, wie alle Spiele ausgehen werden? Dann überweist 10.- auf unser Konto. Unsere Kristallkugel weiss alles!“

Wenn auch nur die Hälfte 10.- überweist, hast du bereits eine Viertelmillion ergaunert.